Improved Amex gift card deal predictions

A number of online portals offer cash back or miles when purchasing American Express gift cards. This presents a great opportunity to run up spend on credit cards to meet minimum spend requirements, hit big spend thresholds, or just to earn regular everyday rewards.  For more about Amex gift cards, please see:

For the past 9 months or so, most portals have offered 1.5% cash back for Amex gift cards, but they regularly offer one-day increased rates as well.  The special one-day offers seem random, but they’re not.  At least for now, they seem to be predictable.

Two weeks ago I posted my observations about repeated Amex gift card portal deals, and I used the information I had found to predict the next deals.  Since then, each of the cash back portals I had written about has offered a one day Amex gift card deal.  While a couple of my predictions were very close, it turned out that I was working from incomplete information.  Readers informed me, for example, that BeFrugal had offered 2.2% cash back on June 12th and June 26th.  Also, eBates apparently ran their app-only 2% cash back offer on May 25th.  I was also informed that when BeFrugal advertises 2.2% cash back, they really give 2.25% cash back.  So, going forward, I’ll report the BeFrugal offers as 2.25% cash back.

Updated data

By combining information from readers and recent offers as reported via Quick Deals, I’ve updated the historical data as follows:

Amex gift card deal predictions

Amex gift card deal predictions

Amex gift card deal predictions

Amex gift card deal predictions

Amex gift card deal predictions

Observed Trends

  • BeFrugal offers 2.25% cash back for business gift cards every other Friday
  • TopCashBack offers 2.25% cash back for business gift cards every other week
  • TopCashBack usually offers their deal on Tuesday except on weeks when Ebates offers 2% through their app.  This may be a coincidence since we only have two data points showing this.
  • Simply Best Coupons offers 2% cash back for business gift cards every other week.
  • Simply Best Coupons offers their deal the day before TopCashBack (true for only the last 3 occurrences, so I wouldn’t bank on it)
  • Ebates offers 2% cash back for both personal and business gift cards (in-app) on the last or second to last Monday of each month

August Predictions

Based on the observed trends (above), we can make the following predictions for August:

  • BeFrugal will offer 2.25% cash back on August 7 and 21 (and Sept 4)
  • TopCashBack will offer 2.25% cash back during the weeks of August 3, 17, and 31
  • TopCashBack  may offer their deals on Tuesday August 4, and August 18 (and Sept 1)
  • Simply Best Coupons will offer 2% cash back on the same weeks as TopCashBack
  • Simply Best Coupons may offer their deals on the days preceding TopCashBack deals (i.e. August 3, 17, 31)
  • Ebates will offer 2% cash back in-app on August 17, 24, or 31
  • If Ebates offers 2% on August 17 or 31, then SimplyBestCoupons and TopCashBack will offer their deals later the same week rather than on Monday and Tuesday.

Amex gift card deal predictions

See Also

About Greg The Frequent Miler

Greg is the owner, founder, and primary author of the Frequent Miler. He earns millions of points and miles each year, mostly without flying, and dedicates this blog to teaching others how to do the same.

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35 Comments on "Improved Amex gift card deal predictions"

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a$]-[u
Guest

SCB has been very fast in acknowledging and giving CB!

HikerT
Guest

SCB is only good for advance notice and pumping referral links to an inferior payout. BF and TCB pay out 2.25%. SCB pays out 2%.

Tracy
Guest

Would you be able to upload these American Express Gift Cards to your BlueBird Account?

steve
Guest

Nope 🙁

Dee
Guest

I have used them to buy Visa GCs at CVS to load onto my Redbird.

HikerT
Guest

Ebates posted on FB that they won’t be offering 2% via the mobile app until issues with the android app are resolved. Basically the www311 subdomain that AMEX uses for AMEX GC orders is missing an intermediate security certificate. Mobile chrome does not like this. Since the android version of the mobile app is using mobile chrome the issue will remain until AMEX fixes the security certificate installation.

Daniel
Guest

Nice to know that if Android can’t take part, no one can *rolls eyes*

Why don’t they just make it available to all via the website then?

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[…] Improved Amex gift card deal predictions – Updating previous predictions based on recent data. […]

Eaton Zhou
Guest

SBC announced 2% on Aug 10.

Aahz
Guest

Apparently you forgot to shift the dots on your August graphic. You only left one week between July’s final offers and August’s first offers.

If you shift the dots down a row you’d be correct with your SBC prediction (others still unknown).

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[…] Business gift cards for today only (8/4/15). This is the exact day that Greg the Frequent Miler predicted for increased cashback at Top […]

Eaton
Guest

Put in 4 orders for business gift cards today, 3 declined and 1 approved……the 1 approved was on Amex Card while the 3 declined were on Visas and Mastercards. Declined email states “Your order was not fulfilled for the following reasons: We could not verify your order information and cannot approve your order at this time.”

Anyone have this issue before? Called the reps but they were no help.

Jason
Guest

seems to be a recurring theme

Eaton
Guest

Was told by Amex in SLC that personal cards can’t be used to purchase Amex Business GCs. Though this answer doesn’t explain why my SPG Amex personal card went through, just not my MasterCard and Visas.

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[…] Improved Amex gift card deal predictions […]

Jason
Guest

Was told the same thing, and my personal delta amex worked also. It’s strange. In addition I could not find amex gift cards on the befrugal site this morning. Maybe they’re just updating?

trackback

[…] As predicted, the BeFrugal shopping portal is offering 2.25% cashback on the purchase of Business Amex gift cards. They don’t specifically mention an expiration date for the offer, but these increased payouts generally only last one day. Note that the page shows 2.2% cash back, but readers have reported that past deals like these have actually resulted in 2.25% cash back. […]

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[…] Wrong thread. Bookmark this site: http://frequentmiler.boardingarea.co…l-predictions/ […]

Eaton
Guest

Been stuck in Amex Financial Review purgatory for over a week now. Even my Amex GC orders using Visa and MasterCard are being denied (personal and business). Anybody had this happen to them?

janol
Guest

was hoping for a TCB one today

chris
Guest

Yeah, me too. Maybe tomorrow or the day after? It looks like there are past examples of it showing up a bit later in the week.

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[…] and BeFrugal have topped this offer with 2.25% and eBates has had a similar offer as well. See: Improved Amex gift card deal predictions for more information about the patterns of increased cashback through the various […]