New Marriott Award Pricing Analysis

Now that the new merged Marriott / SPG / Ritz award pricing has been revealed, I’m working on crunching the numbers.  This is a work in-progress.  Please re-visit often and ask questions below.

Care to help analyze the data?

Here’s a downloadable Excel spreadsheet.  Let me know what you find!  Note: you may have to wait quite a while before the download button appears.

LIVE UPDATES FOLLOW


Summary of Findings

  • On average, award pricing stays about the same when comparing current pricing to early 2019 pricing.
  • Top Tier SPG properties will be cheaper under the new program (as expected)
  • Top Tier Marriott properties will be more expensive under the new program (as expected)
    • Only 2 current Category 9 Marriotts are going down in price! (Fairfield Inn & Suites Ocean City, and Residence Inn Ocean City)
    • 1 Category 9 Marriott is going all the way up to category 8 (Domes of Elounda, Autograph Collection).  Book this one before August!
  • Category 1-5 Certificates:
    • Very few Marriott category 1-5 hotels are going up in price above 25K in August (only 5!).  This means that your category 1-5 certificates will retain their value.
    • 4 Ritz properties will be bookable with these certificates starting in August
    • 548 Marriott properties will drop down to 25K points per night and will then be bookable with these certificates

Is the new program really cheaper?

Marriott says “Nearly 70 percent of all participating hotels can be redeemed for the same or fewer points. (52 percent of hotels will move to a lower redemption rate and only 31 percent will go higher.)”

True, the data agrees:

Award Price # Hotels %
Higher 2187 31.86%
Lower 3533 51.47%
Same 1144 16.67%

But how do the average award prices compare?  When we average the award prices across hotels we find that the award prices remain about the same overall:

Average of Current Points Required Average of New Points Required
Marriott 22,077 21,123
Ritz 48,654 51,635
SPG 29,870 29,499

As you can see above, when award prices are averaged across all hotels, they stay about the same as before.  This does not take into account peak and off-peak pricing, nor does it take into account the temporary lower top tier pricing from August to early 2019.

Hotels to book now with your category 1-5 certificates

Many readers may have free night certificates from their Marriott credit cards or from MegaBonus promotions.  In August, we expect those certificates to be converted into new points-based certificates.  When that happens, those certificates can be used to book any hotel that costs 25K points or less including SPG and Ritz hotels.  So, let’s take a look at whether it makes sense to use the certificate right away or to wait until August to make your booking…

Currently there are 3,704 Marriott hotels that can be booked with these certificates.  Only a handful will increase in price in August to no longer be bookable. So, if you want to book any of these with a certificate, do so before August:

Hotel Name Points Required Today Points Required August
Marriott’s Villas at Doral                             25,000                              35,000
Residence Inn Temecula Murrieta                             25,000                              35,000
Paragraph Resort & Spa Shekvetili, Autograph Collection                             25,000                              35,000
Eugenia de Montijo, Autograph Collection                             25,000                              35,000
Calgary Airport Marriott In-Terminal Hotel                             25,000                              35,000
JW Marriott Hotel New Delhi Aerocity                             25,000                              35,000

Book the above hotels with your free night certificates before August.

Consider waiting until August to book your category 1-5 certificate…

Marriott Category 1-5 certificates in August will be converted to certificates that can be used to book hotels costing up to 25K points.  This means that we’ll be able to use the certificates at SPG properties, Ritz, and Marriott.

Hotel Name # Hotels that will cost 25K or less as of August
Marriott                   4,246
(Up from 3,704)
Ritz                         4
SPG                     965
Grand Total                   5,215

Here are the counts of hotels that are currently more than 25K but will be 25K or less as of August:

Hotel Name # Hotels currently more than 25K that will be 25K or less in August
Marriott                                                           548
Ritz                                                              4
SPG                                                           273
Grand Total                                                           825

Here are the Ritz properties that become available in August at 25K or less:

Hotel Name  Points Required Today  Points Required August
The Ritz-Carlton, Tianjin                             30,000                              25,000
The Ritz-Carlton, Haikou                             30,000                              25,000
The Ritz-Carlton, Almaty                             30,000                              25,000
The Ritz-Carlton, Chengdu                             30,000                              25,000

On the SPG side, there are way too many to list.  Here are the ones that currently cost 36K, but are dropping down to 25K:

Hotel Name  Points Required Today  Points Required August
Four Points by Sheraton French Quarter                             36,000                              25,000
Sheraton Gran Canaria Salobre Golf Resort                             36,000                              25,000
Four Points by Sheraton New York Downtown                             36,000                              25,000
Aloft Austin Downtown                             36,000                              25,000
Sheraton Riyadh Hotel & Towers                             36,000                              25,000
Aloft Chicago City Center                             36,000                              25,000
Four Points by Sheraton Kuwait                             36,000                              25,000
Aloft Harlem                             36,000                              25,000
Four Points by Sheraton Sihlcity – Zurich                             36,000                              25,000
Aloft Hillsboro-Beaverton                             36,000                              25,000
Sheraton Grand Doha Resort & Convention Hotel                             36,000                              25,000
Aloft Manhattan Downtown – Financial District                             36,000                              25,000
Element Vancouver Metrotown                             36,000                              25,000
Le Méridien Stuttgart                             36,000                              25,000

And on the Marriott side, there are over 500 hotels that were previously over 25K that will now be bookable!

35K Certificates

Going forward, the mainstream Marriott and SPG credit cards will offer 35K certificates each year upon renewal.  Marriott says that “6,300 hotels can be redeemed for just 35,000 points or lower.”  I found the real number to be 6,341.  Of those, 1,126 hotels will be exactly 35,000 points standard.  Let’s break those down:

35K Hotels
Marriott                                                           675
Ritz                                                            27
SPG                                                           424

That’s pretty good. Of those, quite a few are in the US:

Hotel Name 35K Hotels
Marriott           507
Ritz               5
SPG           176

It appears that there will be a lot of deals to be had with those 35K certificates. Let’s drill down on some of the luxury brands in the US:

  • Ritz:
    • The Ritz-Carlton Coconut Grove, Miami, The Ritz-Carlton New York, Westchester
    • The Ritz-Carlton, Cleveland
    • The Ritz-Carlton, Dove Mountain
    • The Ritz-Carlton, Tysons Corner
  • St. Regis: None in the US
  • Autograph Collection: 53 in the US!
  • Gaylord:
    • Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center
    • Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center
    • Gaylord Palms Resort & Convention Center
    • Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center
    • Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center
  • Tribute Portfolio:
    • Hotel Colonnade Coral Gables, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
    • La Posada de Santa Fe, A Tribute Portfolio Resort & Spa
    • Magnolia Hotel St. Louis, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
    • SLS Las Vegas, a Tribute Portfolio Resort
    • The Alida, Savannah, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
    • The Dalmar, Fort Lauderdale, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel
    • The Riviera Palm Springs, a Tribute Portfolio Resort

This is very encouraging!  There are clearly lots of great hotels where we can spend those 35K certificates in the future!

50K Certificates

Going forward, the SPG Luxury card (and probably the next generation Ritz card) will offer 50K certificates each year.  To maximize value, you may want to pick hotels that cost exactly 50K points.  Here are the numbers:

By Hotel Chain 50K hotels
Marriott           171
Ritz             33
SPG           108

And restricting to US only:

Hotel Name 50K hotels
Marriott 118
Ritz             16
SPG             53

And here are the US-only counts for some of the high end brands:

Hotel Name 50K hotels
Autograph Collection             24
JW Marriott             10
Le Meridien               3
Luxury Collection               6
Ritz-Carlton             16
St. Regis               1
Tribute Portfolio               3
VISTA               9

I’ve restricted counts in the US only because in the past it has been hard to find aspirational hotels to use restrictive certificates with in the US.  That doesn’t appear to be much of a problem going forward.

Hotels to book starting in August

Here are the hotels that will cost 20K or 24K fewer points per night if booked in August rather than today:

Hotel Name Points Required Today Points Required August Difference
The St. Regis Astana                             60,000                              35,000 -25,000
The St. Regis Florence                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
11 Howard, New York, a Member of Design Hotelsâ„¢                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The Wellesley Knightsbridge, a Luxury Collection Hotel, London                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Cristallo, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Cortina d’Ampezzo                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Bal Harbour Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Giardino Ascona, A Member Of Design Hotels                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Osaka                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Giardino Mountain, a Member of Design Hotels                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
W Koh Samui                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
G-Rough, Rome, a Member of Design Hotels                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Al Maha, a Luxury Collection Desert Resort & Spa, Dubai                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The Prince Gallery Tokyo Kioicho, a Luxury Collection Hotel                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Hôtel de Berri, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Paris                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Bora Bora Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Hotel Cala di Volpe, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Costa Smeralda                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Mardavall Mallorca Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Hotel Danieli, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Venice                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Punta Mita Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Hotel Pitrizza, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Costa Smeralda                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Vana Belle, a Luxury Collection Resort, Koh Samui                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Hotel President Wilson, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Geneva                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
W South Beach                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Hotel Romazzino, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Costa Smeralda                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The Gritti Palace, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Venice                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Kenoa Exclusive Beach Spa & Resort, Barra de Sao Miguel, a Member of Design Hotels                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Aspen Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Las Alcobas, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Napa Valley                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Bahia Beach Resort, Puerto Rico                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Le Méridien Bora Bora                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Bali Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Mystique, A Luxury Collection Resort, Santorini                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Deer Valley                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
PalazzinaG, Venice, a Member of Design Hotels                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Maldives Vommuli Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Parklane, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Limassol                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis New York                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Phoenician Residences, a Luxury Collection Residence Club, Scottsdale                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis Princeville Resort                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Prince de Galles, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Paris                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The St. Regis San Francisco                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Santa Marina, a Luxury Collection Resort, Mykonos                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The Westin Golf Resort & Spa, Playa Conchal                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Schloss Fuschl, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Fuschlsee-Salzburg                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
W Bali – Seminyak                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Sir Joan Hotel, Ibiza City, a Member of Design Hotels                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
W Maldives                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
Suiran, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Kyoto                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
W Verbier                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The Canyon Suites at The Phoenician, a Luxury Collection Resort, Scottsdale                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000
The Chatwal, a Luxury Collection Hotel, New York City                             90,000                              60,000 -30,000

Hotels to book before August

Here are all of the hotels that will cost 15K to 24K more in August than they do now:

Hotel Name Points Required Today Points Required August Difference
The Westin Riverfront Mountain Villas, Beaver Creek Mountain                             36,000                              60,000 24,000
Sheraton Broadway Plantation Resort Villas                             30,000                              50,000 20,000
Sheraton Vistana Resort Villas, Lake Buena Vista/Orlando                             30,000                              50,000 20,000
Marriott’s Club Son Antem                             30,000                              50,000 20,000
Sheraton on the Falls Hotel                             30,000                              50,000 20,000
Marriott’s Waikoloa Ocean Club                             40,000                              60,000 20,000
Sheraton Vistana Villages Resort Villas, I-Drive/Orlando                             30,000                              50,000 20,000
Marriott’s Newport Coast Villas                             40,000                              60,000 20,000
Vistana Beach Club                             30,000                              50,000 20,000
Marriott’s Waiohai Beach Club                             40,000                              60,000 20,000
Marriott’s Kauai Lagoons – Kalanipu’u                             40,000                              60,000 20,000
London Marriott Hotel Park Lane                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
JW Marriott Santa Monica Le Merigot                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Scrub Island Resort, Spa & Marina, Autograph Collection                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott Vacation Club Pulse at Custom House, Boston                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
London Marriott Hotel County Hall                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott Vacation Club Pulse, San Diego                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
MVW Streamside Evergreen at Vail                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Cotton House Hotel, Autograph Collection                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
JW Marriott Essex House New York                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s Crystal Shores                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
The Cove Atlantis, Autograph Collection                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s Cypress Harbour Villas                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
Vail Marriott Mountain Resort                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s Fairway Villas                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
MVW Streamside Douglas at Vail                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s Frenchman’s Cove                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Paris Marriott Champs Elysees Hotel                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s Imperial Palms Villas                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
Grosvenor House, A JW Marriott Hotel                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Domes Noruz Chania, Autograph Collection                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
JW Marriott Nashville                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Boscolo Exedra Roma, Autograph Collection                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
SpringHill Suites Springdale Zion National Park                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
Domes of Elounda, Autograph Collection                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
The Shelbourne Dublin, A Renaissance Hotel                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s Royal Palms                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
Union Station Hotel Nashville, Autograph Collection                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s Sabal Palms                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
London Marriott Hotel Grosvenor Square                             45,000                              60,000 15,000
Marriott’s St. Kitts Beach Club                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
Fairfield Inn & Suites Virgin Zion National Park                             35,000                              50,000 15,000
Marriott’s Marbella Beach Resort                             35,000                              50,000 15,000

And here are a bunch that will go up by 13K or 14K points:

Hotel Name Points Required Today Points Required August Difference
The Westin Copley Place, Boston                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
W Seattle                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Resort & Spa, Cancun                             21,000                              35,000 14,000
Falisia, a Luxury Collection Resort & Spa, Portopiccolo                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Nines, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Portland                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Great Northern Hotel, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel, London                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Kierland Villas                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Hotel Bristol, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Vienna                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin St. Francis San Francisco on Union Square                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Méridien Cambridge-MIT                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Equinox, a Luxury Collection Golf Resort & Spa, Vermont                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Méridien Delfina Santa Monica                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
THE US GRANT, a Luxury Collection Hotel, San Diego                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Méridien Fisherman’s Cove                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Grand Cayman Seven Mile Beach Resort & Spa                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Méridien Mina Seyahi Beach Resort & Marina                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Monache Resort, Mammoth                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Méridien Ra Beach Hotel & Spa                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin San Diego Gaslamp Quarter                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Metropolitan, a Tribute Portfolio Hotel, Paris                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Twelve at Hengshan, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Shanghai                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Royal Méridien Beach Resort & Spa                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Walt Disney World Swan                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Le Westin Resort & Spa, Tremblant, Quebec                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Inn at Rancho Santa Fe, a Tribute Portfolio Resort & Spa                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Park Tower, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Buenos Aires                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The St. Regis Moscow Nikolskaya                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Royal Palm South Beach Miami, a Tribute Portfolio Resort                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Boston Waterfront                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Boston Hotel                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Desert Willow Villas, Palm Desert                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Commander Hotel                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Grand, Vancouver                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Fisherman’s Wharf Hotel                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Mission Hills Resort Villas, Palm Springs                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Grand Hotel & Spa, Edinburgh                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Nashville                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Hong Kong Hotel & Towers                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin San Diego                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Lakeside Terrace Villas at Mountain Vista, Avon, Vail Valley                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Westin Seattle                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Louisville Riverside Hotel                             21,000                              35,000 14,000
The Westin Trillium House, Blue Mountain                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Miyako Hotel Tokyo                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
W Fort Lauderdale                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Walt Disney World Dolphin                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Augustine, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Prague                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
The Ballantyne, a Luxury Collection Hotel, Charlotte                             36,000                              50,000 14,000
Sheraton Skyline Hotel London Heathrow                             21,000                              35,000 14,000
Four Points by Sheraton Orlando International Drive                             12,000                              25,000 13,000
Sheraton Lake Buena Vista Resort                             12,000                              25,000 13,000

Category Analyses

Primary Question: How do the old categories map to the new categories?

SPG

Here are the actual chart mappings for SPG properties. The % column shows the percent of hotels within the same original category that were assigned to this new category.  Rows with very low percentages are not shown.  I’ve highlighted in red where prices have gone up significantly and in green where prices go down significantly.

Keep in mind that the hotels that map to category 8 above will actually be category 7 (60K points) from August to early 2019.

Marriott & Ritz

Here are the actual chart mappings for Marriott & Ritz properties. The % column shows the percent of hotels within the same original category that were assigned to this new category.  Rows with very low percentages are not shown.  I’ve highlighted in red where prices have gone up significantly and in green where prices go down significantly.

Not surprisingly, almost all current top tier Marriott’s (Cat 9) are going up in price.  74% go up only 5K per night, but a significant percentage go up more.

 

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Jig
Guest
Jig

Weighted average night cost across the portfolio is currently 25K.

After the full changes in 2019, IF STANDARD PRICING APPLIES, then the weighted average night cost goes down to 24K. However, given that is quite unlikely with the peak/off-peak levels, I made a few assumptions and would estimate that the EFFECTIVE weighted average night cost stays right at 25K.

There is a lot of movement inside this staying level, with some high end hotels of most interest to the points crowd going up and some going down, but really Marriott seems to have tried to keep point levels about even across luxury/mid/econo categories. Of course, there are great deals to be had between August 2018 and early 2019 at category 8 hotels for 60K points a night, and the 5th night free on top.

OVERALL EARN/BURN NET CHANGE:
SPG members get much better earning rates across all elite/non-elite categories than currently, so they are around 35% better off taking account no change to the redemption side. Current Marriott non-elites and 25-49 night elites get little to no change, 10-24 night elites are the only ones hurt by about 10% due to lower earning, and 50+ night elites are ~15% better off due to improved earnings.

Much better than I feared on earning/burning through stays! The SPG members leave a ridiculously under-rewarding earn proposition behind, and current 50+ night Marriott elites get a sweetened earn set up too. Low night Marriott elites get a devaluation, but not a terrible one. Lets see how Travel packages turn out…

brian
Guest
brian

1-5 category certificate will retain the value? so that I can choose new category 5 and below hotel starting Aug? I have been looking for this answer. Please add a link where I can confirm the fact when you get a chance. Thank you so much for the info. You are awesome!

Nick Reyes
Editor

No. Retain their value does not equal retain the same category name.

The current value of Cat 1-5 is up to 25K points for 1 night (a current Cat 5 hotel costs 25K points).

We expect that certificate will still be valid at properties that charge up to 25K points. That’ll be Cat 4 in the new program. The good news, and Greg nots, is that the vast majority of current Cat 5 hotels will stay at 25K and move to Cat 4 in the new program.

brian
Guest
brian

I see. That’s a good news for me. Thank you.

dir
Guest
dir

Wouldn’t it be important to know what constitutes “peak” or “off peak”?

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